Total Battery Consulting
November 20, 2013

Honda’s successful transition to strong hybrids will reshape the hybrid vehicle industry—Li-Ion HEV batteries in short supply.

“The 2014 xEV Industry Insider Report” by Dr. Menahem Anderman, to be released next week, reveals that following a decisive move by Honda, the strong hybrid vehicle market has entered a rapid growth phase with HEV batteries in short supply and all four Japanese Li-Ion prismatic cell producers swiftly expanding production. Selections from from the Report’s Executive Summary are now online.

"The 2014 xEV Industry Insider Report" dissects current xEV and xEV-battery technology and provides an insightful assessment of the likely trajectory of the industry, including vehicle- and battery-market forecasts by automakers and battery developers. The 170-page report projects that while the combined global EV and plug-in Hybrid (PHEV) market share is expected to grow to about 1.5% of total vehicle sales by 2020, the more significant story is the rapid expansion of the strong-hybrid vehicles led by Toyota, Ford, and Honda, followed by Hyundai, Nissan and others. The current market share in Japan already exceeds 20%, and the world market share is estimated to exceed 5% by 2020.

The Report assesses multiple xEV architectures and reveals that low-cost systems at 14V and strong-hybrid architectures at 140 -300V provide the best value proposition for both carmaker and customer, while the intermediate mild-hybrid solutions are faltering. It further discusses the technological status and manufacturing positions of individual battery producers and points out the Japanese and Korean battery manufacturers who are best positioned to succeed in the market. The Report also examines the challenges that European and U.S.-based companies face as they struggle to meet the cost-performance capabilities of the experienced Asian producers.

According to the Report’s baseline estimate, the global Li-Ion xEV business will reach $3.8 billion in 2015 and $9.2 billion in 2020. Anderman’s in-depth report is based on on-site interviews with senior battery technologists and business development executives at 18 major automakers and 20 battery-system suppliers on 3 continents.

Dr. Anderman routinely consults with major automakers, battery makers, and related-industry stakeholders. He is founder and chairman of the premier international industry forum, the Advanced Automotive Battery Conference (AABC).