"Understanding the unique dynamics, risks, and opportunities of this market as well as the complex technological challenges is essential for guiding corporate investment decisions", says Dr. Menahem Anderman, author of the report. "But since government funding, not consumer value, is the driver; conventional business models do not apply." Many different estimates of the future electric vehicle market are discussed, however, the EV market cannot be projected using a normal business model because it is essentially being driven by governments, not customers. The implications of this unique market driver, is critically discussed in the "2011 EV & PHEV Opportunity Report", published by Advanced Automotive Batteries (AAB) last week.
The report states that the world EV market will grow from negligible levels in 2010 to about 250,000 units in 2015, and to about 500,000 units - less than 1% of the anticipated 85 million annual new vehicle market - by 2020. Meanwhile, the world market for plug-in electric vehicles (PHEVs) will increase from almost zero in 2010 to about 140,000 units in 2015 and 750,000 by 2020. The associated li-ion automotive battery business (for (EV, PHEV, and HEV) is projected to expand from $320 (€229) million in 2010, to $4 (€2,86) billion in 2015, and to $11 (€7,87) billion in 2020.
AAB based their analysis on on-site interviews with senior battery technologists and business-development executives at over 20 major automakers and 18 current and prospective battery suppliers on three continents. Their conclusion is that, starting in 2011-2013, most established automakers will cautiously field a few thousand vehicles annually – much less than many optimistic estimates predict. The report focuses on the technology status and manufacturing position of the battery producers best positioned to succeed in the market, including half a dozen of the Japanese and Korean battery manufactures and a few from China and the US.
The author, Dr. Menahem Anderman, will present conclusions and insights from the report at the 2nd Advanced Automotive Battery Conference (AABC) Europe 2011, taking place 6-10 June in Mainz, Germany. The conference will examine the rapidly expanding advanced automotive battery market with a focus on the activities and needs of European automakers. cars21.com is official media partner and will report on site.