Anderman report sees strongest growth for full-hybrid systems;
Li-ion batteries for hybrids may be in short supply.
Low-cost 14V micro hybrid systems and full (strong) hybrid (i.e., systems with limited electric drive) architectures at 140-300V are entering strong growth phases, while the future of intermediate systems—those falling between the high-voltage full hybrids and the low-voltage stop-start systems—is less clear, according to “Assessing the Future of Hybrid and Electric Vehicles: The 2014 xEV Industry Insider Report” by Dr. Menahem Anderman of Advanced Automotive Batteries (AAB), to be released next week.
The 170-page report also finds that while the combined global EV and plug-in Hybrid (PHEV) market share is expected to grow to about 1.5% of total vehicle sales by 2020, the more significant story is the rapid expansion of strong-hybrid vehicles led by Toyota, Ford, and Honda, followed by Hyundai, Nissan and others. The current market share in Japan already exceeds 20%, and the world market share is estimated to exceed 5% by 2020.
Although NiMH is still the dominant battery in the high-voltage hybrid market, Li-ion technology started to take market share around 2009 and is expected to continually increase its share with time. According to the report’s baseline estimate, the global Li-ion xEV business will reach $3.8 billion in 2015 and $9.2 billion in 2020.