2010 EV PHEV Opportunity Report press release

Sustainable growth of the EV and PHEV markets ride on subsidies and reliability of lithium-ion batteriese

Consulting firm Total Battery Consulting (TBC) will soon release its industry-insider report stating that the emerging EV and PHEV markets could flatten out due to unproven technology. The report notes that the market will be initially bolstered by heavy subsidies to automakers, battery makers, and consumers, but that sustained growth will depend on yet-to-be-proven battery technology as well as on supporting government policies.

“The Plug-In Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Opportunity Report” authored by Dr. Menahem Anderman projects that global EV market share will grow from negligible levels in 2009 to 0.13% of the 2015 new-vehicle market, and up to 0.50% of the 2020 new-vehicle market which is anticipated at 80 million units annually. Most established automakers will cautiously field a few thousand vehicles annually starting in 2011–2013—much lower numbers than suggested by heavy media coverage of the technology—and plan to increase production pending prove-out of the technology.

AAB’s in-depth report is based on on-site interviews with senior battery technologists and business development executives at 20 major automakers and 15 of their current and prospective battery suppliers on three continents. Under the Report baseline estimate the global PHEV market will grow from essentially zero in 2009 to 500,000 units in 2020, and the associated Li-Ion automotive battery business—which includes EV, PHEV and HEV batteries— from $150 million in 2009 to $8.4 billion in 2020.

In addition to reviewing the history and lessons learned of electric-vehicle and battery development, the report contains detailed information about the Li-Ion battery: its economics, design, manufacturing, performance, and durability. The report notes the critical importance of battery reliability and discusses the technological status and manufacturing position of battery producers. It also points to half a dozen Japanese and Korean battery manufacturers, and some Chinese and U.S. manufacturers, who are best positioned to succeed in the market—with forecasts for each battery supplier.

Dr. Anderman routinely consults with major automakers, battery makers, and related stakeholders. He is founder and chairman of the premier international industry forum, the Advanced Automotive Battery Conference (AABC). The 10th annual conference is scheduled for May 17–21, 2010 in Orlando, Florida.